Empire of Dunces

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Politics

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A number of questions have also arisen with regards to the political situation in Europe in general and Germany in particular. I know that many of you are unfamiliar with the politics in Germany. Time and again, I am asked – how long are the Germans still going to take being the paymasters on the one hand, and hated by all the other nations for daring to impose conditions on all this money being lent out? Riots in Greece, Ireland, France… how long before the Germans riot?
Well, allow me to just say – Germans don’t riot. Not even at the ballot box apparently. But what we do have is a healthy fear of inflation. There must be some kind of genetic memory there back from the bad old days of the Weimar Republic. Germans are going into gold. It has already started with long queues, and it will only get stronger. The gold market is going to get very strong here in Germany. But aside from that, I literally cannot tell you what else is going to happen. The German politicians have been neutered generations ago, and there is absolutely NO WAY that any politician here is going to walk away from the Euro. Germany walking away would be the end of the Euro, which would be the end of the EU, and none of them have the spine for that. Far more likely that the UK will walk out. Not because they have a ‘conservative’ government now, for Cameron is a lot of things, but conservative he is not. Once again, the economic fundamentals will force their hands at some point. I believe that the Euro will muddle through for quite a while longer. But unless the major heads at some point decide to split it up into a strong northern half (Germany, France, Benelux, Finland) and a weaker south, the entire rotting edifice will come down. It remains to be seen, if they have the intestinal fortitude to even pull that much off, for it will essentially mean the end of their great experiment. One can only hope. We must not forget that the establishment of the Euro was always a POLITICAL decision, not an economic one. But it will be the economics that will bring it down. Inevitably. Maybe not just yet. But probably sooner than most people believe just yet. And no, you may not quote me on that. 🙂 I could be wrong about the date. But not about the final verdict.

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Written by gloege

May 17, 2010 at 02:07

Posted in Politics

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