Empire of Dunces



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So, Germany has had 2,2 percent growth over the last quarter. Over the whole year that would aggregate into 9 percent growth per annum, which would put Germany in one league with China! Not that that would be an actual possibility. Still, going by the numbers that is a seriously impressive result. Considering my general negativity, whenever I am asked about Germany’s prospects, I suppose that it might seem like I have egg on my face. And to a certain degree, I do. In fact, I would not have expected the German economy to pull off such a performance. Several issues need to be mentioned in this regard. First of all, a singular quarter’s results indicate very little. Also, official government statistics should always be taken with a serious grain of salt. Beyond that, the majority of this economic growth is on account of export driven industries, which have been profiting from all the stimulus programs enacted across much of the planet. In addition, Germany is one of the few countries that stopped their stimulus program fairly early, contra the exhortations of all the Keynesian genius’ out there. The reason why this amazing economic growth will not last? Most of the stimuli programs have run out, and hardly anybody has any money left for new ones. Even if they did, however, it would just be for one more quarter. Either way, this quarter’s growth has been an aberration. A most impressive aberration, but still nothing more. If anything, it provides a shining example of what this glorious country would be capable of, if only we were not held back by this corrupt cabal of politicians, national, as well as European. Not to forget the general cultural establishment, which has been indoctrinating us for the last 40 years about how our nation would be best off, if only we disappeared into the European Union. Still, the same people remain in charge, and they will take this quarter’s result as a sign that they know better than everybody else, and should continue in the same way as before. It is heartening that Merkel did not let herself be influenced in her economic decision making by foreign dignitaries and economic experts. Remarkable in and off itself, but not enough anymore at this stage. There is simply no indication that Germany is actually willing to finally forge its own path. And without that, this nation will go down the same drain that all the other Europeans are going down. Some of the East-Europeans give reason for hope. In particular, I like how the Hungarians have told the IMF to stuff it. These transnational do-gooders are simply a menace to anybody that listens to them. But as a general rule, I do not believe that Europe is a place worthy of your investment dollars at this time. Should that change – country by country – I will update you, and give you recommendations along those lines. For now, there are some indications that real estate in certain areas is getting cheap enough to be considered a bargain, for example in Spain. But this is not yet a proper recommendation. Further investigation is warranted, and once I give you my analysis, it will also pinpoint exact areas within those countries, plus which kind of properties would be best suited for our purposes.


Written by gloege

August 21, 2010 at 17:54

Posted in Uncategorized

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